My primary area of focus is the economics of wildfire. Some short summaries of my papers are below.

Homes as Havens: the Spatial Relationship Between Homes and Areas Burned by Wildfires

Fire managers have strong incentives to save homes. However, the effectiveness of fire suppression is difficult to measure. This paper examines the relationship between areas burned by wildfires and home locations by comparing the density of homes around fire perimeters and by the measuring the frequency of refugia around structures. Existing studies of refugia, defined as unburned areas within fire perimeters, have not yet evaluated structure presence or structure protection activities as potential causes for refugia. This paper analyzes the spatial frequency of structures within fire perimeters and within refugia. Post-fire structure outcome data from Alexandre et al. (2016) as well as structure location data from Microsoft’s Building Footprints and Zillow’s ZTRAX housing datasets show that refugia is strongly dependent on structure locations. Furthermore, structure density is found to be much higher within 30 meters of fire perimeters, indicating that fires often burn right up to houses. This suggests that human factors (fire suppression or development) mitigate fire spread and provides a new metric to measure firefighting effectiveness.

Map of structure density by state The graph above shows structure density at various distances from the fire perimeter. Notice the difference in density between thhe 0-30 meter buffer and neighboring buffers, suggesting a spatial relationship between structures and wildfire spread.

Homebuyers' Values of Housing Attributes Based on Wildfire Risk

In year 2020, there were 9,630 residences destroyed by wildfires in the United States. While living in the wildland urban interface (WUI) may be desirable for homeowners, the increased wildfire risk in some WUI locations may make certain homes less desirable. This paper examines the relationship that home materials have on house prices in fire prone areas. A hedonic model of housing prices based on housing attributes and wildfire risk is constructed to determine home buyer willingness to pay for home attributes that are vulnerable to wildfires, such as wooden roofs. Homebuyers initially appear willing to spend more to purchase homes in high fire risk areas. However, they value a home in a high fire risk area less if it has a flammable roof despite wooden roofs commanding a price premium in other locations. The results suggest that homeowners may be aware of how fire risk relates to their type of home but still place more value on the aesthetics than the associated fire risk.

Paying it Forward: Housing Assessments and Wildfire Risk

To fund wildfire protection, some states have required homes located in areas determined by the state to be at higher fire risk to pay a fee. From 2011 to 2017, California charged property owners a fee of approximately $150 for each habitable structure located in the state responsibility area. In states and counties that don’t charge a fee for living in a fire risk area, fire protection services are paid for by the entire group of taxpayers. This may result in an implicit subsidy to homeowners in high fire risk areas. This paper develops a model to determine if states and counties charge homeowners living in areas with wildfire risk more in taxes than homeowners that live in areas without wildfire risk.